CASE Emerging Economies: Comeback or Collapse? 10 0 4000 4500 820 943 An epochal shift in the center of gravity of the global economy is un FIGURE 4.1 Emerging Markets Make a Comeback derway. By 2050, four of the six largest economies in the world- Throughout much of the past millennium, today’s emerging economies, notably China, India, Japan, and Russia—will be in greater Asia. Their growth China and India, accounted for about 70 percent of global economic output. By the twentieth century, today’s developed economies, such as the United will create a second tier of robust economies among their Asian States, Germany, and Japan, generated nearly three-quarters of global economic neighbors, such as Singapore, the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, output. Trends suggest that by 2050, if not sooner emerging economies will again account for more than 70 percent of global economic output, thereby Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Countries in other, once culminating in their comeback sluggish parts of the world, like Africa and South America, will develop Source Based on Development Centre Studies, The World Eco A Mill Perspective olay CHECD Publishing, 2006. Looking Global Vision Growth COECD along with their Asian counterparts. Although the pace varies, all are Economic Policy Papers, November 2012 moving from the periphery to the center of the global economy. 90 Extrapolating from 2017 to 2050 is, undeniably, more specula- 80 tion than specification. Still, many emerging economies are applying 70 potent pro-growth policies. Hard data confirm their success so far.
In 1980, their combined output accounted for 36 percent of global GDP. 60 They crossed a milestone in 2009, accounting for more than half of 50 total world GDP. Similarly, emerging economies’ share of world ex- 40 ports exceeds more than 50 percent, versus 20 percent in 1970. The 30 IMF reports that the 10 fastest-growing markets in the years ahead 20 are in emerging economies. Others suggest that 400 midsize emerg- ing market cities, many unfamiliar in the West, such as Abidjan, Chit- tagong, Khartoum, Kinshasa, Luanda, and Ouagadougou, will produce about 40 percent of global growth over the next 15 years.” Institutionally, 950 2005 2025 2050 the G-7, long a U.S.-Europe stronghold, has expanded into the G-20, Developed Economies Emerging Economies thereby giving members like China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea greater say in global governance. These new stakeholders economic might from Asia to the West, today’s emerging economies advocate different views of trade promotion and investment regu dominated world output. From 1000 to the mid-1880s, they produced, lation. Moreover, emerging economies build institutions, such as the on average, 70 to 80 percent of world output (see Figure 4.1). Over Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to champion their agenda. Col- this span, China and India were the world’s Mo biggest economies; lectively, the accelerating rise of emerging economies signaled that the China alone generated one-third of global gross domestic product in wealthier countries of the twentieth century would not dominate the 1820. In 1850, China produced the highest percent of all the goods global economy in the twenty-first century. consumed in the world.
Britain, riding the Industrial Revolution, soon The past generation of progress and prosperity in emerging mar. claimed this title before ceding the top spot to the United States kets suggests the revolution has only begun. The ambition to improve around the beginning of the twentieth century. By 1950, emerging infrastructure, increase productivity, create jobs, and alleviate pov. economies’ share of global output had fallen to 40 percent, China’s erty has put into motion what will likely be the biggest stimulus in to 5 percent. Many floundered as internal political failure, aggravated history. The last transformation of similar magnitude-the Industrial by colonialism and dubious trade agreements, spurred isolationism and Revolution-involved far fewer people in far fewer nations, but still xenophobia. Consequently, the Industrial Revolution benefited the powered a century-and-a-half expansion that altered lives every West while bypassing today’s emerging markets. where. Today’s revolution spans the globe, includes far more people Presently, the ambition of emerging economies is straight- in far more countries, and represents the biggest opportunity in the forward: Restore their historic stature as the engine of the global history of capitalism. The transfer of the leadership baton from economy. This goal will culminate in their comeback, where, once wealthy countries to emerging markets, for better and for worse, again, they account for more than 70 percent of global output.
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