Another group of industrialized countries-the United States, the Soviet Union, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Argentina are doubling their populations in 30 to 40 years, approximately the world average. The pre-industrial, low-income, and less- developed areas of the world, with two thirds of the world’s population including Asia (except Japan and the Asiatic part of the Soviet Union), the southwestern Pacific islands (principally the Philippines and Indonesia). Africa (with the exception of European minorities), the Caribbean Islands, and Latin America (with the exception of Argentina and Uruguay) are growing at rates ranging from moderate to very fast. Annual growth rates in Jul POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD The rates of population growth are not the same, of course, in all parts of the world. Among the industrialized countries, Japan and most of the countries of Europe are now growing relatively slowly doubling their populations in 50 to 100 years. Another group of industrialized countries the United States, the Soviet Union, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Argentina -are doubling their populations in 30 to 40 years, approximately the world average. The pre-industrial, low-income, and less- developed areas of the world, with two thirds of the world’s population-including Asia (except Japan and the Asiatic part of the Soviet Union), the southwestern Pacific islands (principally the Philippines and Indonesia), Africa (with the exception of European minorities), the Caribbean Islands, and Latin America (with the exception of Argentina and Uruguay) are growing at rates ranging from moderate to very fast.
Annual growth rates in all these areas range from one and one-half to three and one-half per cent, doubling in 20 to 40 years, The rates of population growth of the various countries of the world are, with few exceptions, simply the differences between their birth rates and death rates. International migration is a negligible factor in rates of growth today. Thus, one can understand the varying rates of population growth of different parts of the world by understanding what underlies their respective birth and death rates. THE REDUCTION OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN WESTERN EUROPE SINCE 1800 A brief, over-simplified history of the course of birth and death rates in western Europe since about 1800 not only provides a frame of reference for understanding the current birth and death rates in Europe, but also casts some light on the present situation and prospects in other parts of the world. A simplified picture of the population history of a typical western European country is shown in Alleres to del Dente w 75-80 years Figure 1. Schematic presentation of birth and death rates in western Europe after 1800. (The time span varies roughly from TI before World War II more than half of the couples in Great Britain practicing birth control were practicing withdrawal, or coitus interruptus. There is similar direct evidence for other European countries. In this instance, the decline in fertility was not the result of technical innovations in contraception, but of the decision of married couples to resort to folk methods known for centuries. Thus we must explain the decline in the western European birth rates in terms of why people were willing to modify their sexual behavior in order to have fewer children. Such changes in attitude were doubtless a part of a whole set of profound social and economic changes that accompanied the industrialization and modernization of western Europe. Among the factors underlying this particular change in attitude was a change in the economic consequences of childbearing. In a pre-industrial, agrarian society children start helping with chores at an early age; they do not remain in a dependent status during a long period of education. They provide the principal form of support for the parents in their old age, and, with high mortality, many children must be born to ensure that some will survive to take care of their parents.
On the other hand, in an urban, industrialized society, children are less of an economic asset and more of an economic burden. Among the social factors that might account for the change in attitude is the decline in the importance of the family as an economic unit that has accompanied the industrialization and modernization of Europe. In an industrialized economy, the family is no longer the unit of production and individuals come to be judged by what they do rather than who they are. Children leave home to seek jobs and parents no longer count on support by their children in their old age. As this kind of modernization continues, public education, which is essential to the production of a literate labor force, is extended to women, and thus the traditional subordinate role of women is modified. Since the burden of child care falls primarily on women, their rise in status is probably an important element in the development of an attitude favoring the deliberate limitation of family size. Finally, the social and economic changes characteristic of industrialization and modernization of a country are accompanied by and reinforce a rise of secularism, pragmatism, and rationalism in place of custom and tradition. Since modernization of a nation involves extension of deliberate human control over an increasing range of the environment, it is not surprising that people living in an economy undergoing industrialization should extend the notion of deliberate and rational control to the question of whether or not birth should result from their sexual activities. As the simplified representation in Eigure 1 indicates, the birth rate in western Europe usually began its descent after the death rate had already fallen substantially. (France is a partial exception. The decline in French births began late in the 18th century and the downward courses of the birth and death rates during the 19th century were more or less parallel.) In general. the death rate appears to be affected more immediately and automatically by industrialization. One may surmise that the birth rate responds more slowly because its reduction requires changes in more in most societies a consensus in favor of improving health and reducing the incidence of premature death. There is no such consensus for changes in attitudes and behavior needed to reduce the birth rate. DECLINING FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED AREAS The pattern of declining mortality and fertility that we have described for western Europe fits not only the western European countries upon which it is based but also, with suitable adjustment in the initial birth and death rates and in the time scale, eastern and southern Europe (with the exception of Albania), the Soviet Union, Japan, the United States, Australia, Canada, Argentina, and New Zealand.
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