The world’s second biggest economy paper

China, where the Covid-19 virus originated in, is the most populous country with nearly 1.4 billion residents1 and the world’s second biggest economy, with a GDP of $13.6 trillion. China has been fighting the Covid-19 pandemic since December 2019 but this battle devastated China’s economy in the first quarter of 2020. China is the crucial country as a source of both demand and supply, and a focus of concern for financial markets for the rest of the world; hereby, adverse developments in China have spillover effects on the other countries [10]. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced that growth prospect for China has been revised down sharply to below 5% this year after 6.1% in 2019. Accordingly, global economic growth is projected to fall to 2.4% in 2020, compared to 2.9% in 2019, but it could fall as low as 1.5% due to the drop in overall global economic activities [10]. Tourism is a huge global business that accounts for 10.4% of global GDP and 10% of global employment according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) [11]. Only Chinese tourists account for around one-tenth of all crossborder visitors and a huge drop in outbound tourism from China leads to an adverse demand shock in many countries [10]. With the spreading of the virus all around the world, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) announced that the tourism sector is currently one of the hardest-hit by the Covid-19, with impacts on both travel supply and demand.

An expected fall in international tourist arrivals will be between 20% and 30% could translate into a decline in international tourism receipts of between $300 and 450 billion [12]. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated cost airlines as much as $252 billion with a 44% drop in lost revenue due to the collapse of the airline industry [13]. On the other hand, China ranked first in goods and services exports with an export value of about $2.7 trillion and second in imports with $2.6 trillion in 2018. Accordingly, China’s production relations with other countries cover a broad space that cannot be filled quickly. China has a key role in global supply chains as a producer of intermediate goods, particularly in computers, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and transport equipment, and as the primary source of demand for many commodities. General Administration of Customs stated that China’s overall exports and imports contracted by 17.2% and 4%, respectively in the first two mounts of 2020 [14]. Over that time, China’s industrial production fell by 13.5% and industrial profits decreased by 38.3% [15,16]. Around the world, businesses are dealing with lost revenue and disrupted supply chains due to factory closures in China. However, the extended factory closures in China will not only affect the supply of those products but also hurt other markets’ ability to produce goods. Furthermore, the uncertainty in China is harmful to global oil prices since China is the world’s biggest oil importer with 20.2% of total crude oil imports Nevertheless, global oil demand has been hit hard by the Covid-19 because of the widespread contraction of China’s economy and the drop in demand fuels and gasoline with the travel bans. Meanwhile, the price war between major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia continues, and they have continuously increased production to overwhelm global oil markets with supply. The price of something is determined by the interplay of supply and demand but two of the world’s biggest oil producers cause a huge unbalance between demand and supply in the oil market. As a result of this, oil prices lost as much as a third of their value since the 1991 Gulf War5 . In theory, falling oil prices should be good for growth since business costs fall when fuel becomes cheaper and consumers’ purchasing power increase for oil-based energy products.

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However, there is unlikely to be much of fuel demand in the short term due to the wide-ranging travel bans and curfews. The International Labour Organization (ILO) announced that between 5.3 million and 24.7 million jobs will be lost because of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19, and this deterioration in employment also means a large loss of income between $860 billion to $3.4 trillion by the end of 2020 for workers [17]. For example, in March 2020, the unemployment rate increased by 0.9% point to 4.4% in the United States (US) [18] and more than 6.6 million Americans have filed unemployment claims since the pandemic began in the United States (US) [19]. Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors continue to worry about the broader uncertain economic effects of the pandemic. The FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei have all seen huge falls (more than 25%) since the pandemic began. Net portfolio flows and the value of currencies of emerging economies against the dollar have dropped significantly since the beginning of 2020 [20].To calm markets and encourage spending, central banks in many countries have cut interest rates to make borrowing cheaper and injected liquidity in the financial market to guarantee liquidity in sovereign and private credit markets.

For example, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England cut their key interest rate to near zero. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) took action, spending a €750 billion buying government debt and private securities before the end of 2020. Recently, governments have started to provide a sizable economic support package for their citizens and businesses, including mainly wage subsidies, cash transfers to low-income households, as well as tax cuts and rent reductions for businesses. Also, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the WB announced $50 billion and $14 billion packages, respectively for financing to help countries suffering from the pandemic [22,23]. In addition, the US Senate passes a historic $2.2 trillion rescue package and the United Kingdom (UK) pays up to 80% of employee wages for those unable to work due to the pandemic to prevent bankruptcies, massive layoffs and negative impact on aggregate demand8 . Economists predict that the pandemic is putting downward pressure on inflation due to the volatility in supply and demand shocks working in opposite and asynchronous ways [24]. While China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 5.2% due to mainly food inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.3 % in February due to mainly decline in the price of raw materials [25,26]. Also, consumers intended to increase their spending on groceries and non-food products for children in the US in March 2020 and they expected to decrease their spending for almost every other product category9 . Therefore, inflation in other countries will likely follow a similar trend like China and the impact on consumer prices will continue until the production starts again. UNCTAD estimated the overall price decline would be 37% in 2020 [20]. According to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) monitoring, over 160 countries have implemented nationwide closures, involving over 91% of the world’s student population10. It carries high economic costs since working parents are more likely to miss work that leads to a wage loss and adverse impact on production in the short term. In the long term, this situation will bring a deterioration in human capital that has a great impact on the economic development of countries.

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