Forecasting serves the primary reason due to which historical trends are analyzed. Future estimations can be made using the following techniques:
Straight Line Forecasting Method It is the most followed method due to its simplicity and ease of use. Under this method, growth rates are calculated. This method is most suitable for organizations, which grow at a consistent rate. For example, an organization expands its sales by a constant rate of 25% every year.
Moving Average Forecasting Method Instead of calculating growth rates, an organization can also take averages of the input values. This method is suitable for making short-term projections such as sales forecasts for the next quarter or the stock price in the next weekâ€™s trading session.
Linear Regression Forecasting Method In this method, a graph chart is used, with X-axis and Y-axis. The dependent variable is plotted at the Y-axis and changes in accordance with the explanatory variable plotted at the X-axis. A regression analysis using two variables establishes a correlation between them, which explains the future movements of the dependent variable. The movements can be anything, such as:
No change or Hold in position.
Estimation Of Future Revenue Using Trend Analysis
Trend analysis helps an organization analyze its current revenue and, based on the findings, forecast the future revenue earning capabilities of the organization. In order to do so, the concerned personnel can identify a trend or logic and use it for revenue estimation.
ABC Corporation is a trading organization engaged in the business of selling toys. It wishes to forecast its future revenue of the next five years for Product X, based on the below mentioned historical data:
2016 500 $15
2017 750 $18
2018 1125 $21
2019 1700 $25
2020 2500 $30
Conducting Trend Analysis of the Historical Data
On studying the â€˜Units soldâ€™ column, it can be observed that the sales of Product X are increasing approximately at the rate of 150%, which means a 50% growth every year.
Similarly, an analysis of the â€˜Price per unitâ€™ column would reveal that the organization can also enhance its selling price at an approximate rate of 20% year on year due to a consistent increase in demand.
After calculating the growth rates, an organization can forecast the future using the trend determined.
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